There is an old saying "if it is too good to be true... it probably isn't". I think we have this so deeply embedded in our conscious that we seek out any news of impending doom. This morning's jobs report might be one such example. It started with gloom and doom about how the numbers failed to meet expectations and wage growth had softened. I read one report that claimed we must have 150,000 jobs per month to grow our economy. The sky seemed to be literally falling, not unlike the inverted yield curve of treasuries a few months back. BTW... calmer voices are now weighing in on the numbers. For the record... employment is not an accurate predictor of recession, imo. Most recessions in the past 80 years have shown negative wage growth in the 6 months prior to a recession. BUT... not always. The 11-73~3-75 recession did not show a negative wage growth until August of 1974 and continued a couple of months after the March 1975 official end. The great recession did have negative wage growth a couple of months into the lead up to its official start in 12-2007, but after the official end in 6-2009, seven of the following twelve months had negative growth. In fact it took until February, 2011 to get back to those June, 2009 employment numbers. Now to today's report in my little chart form... The reds are negative numbers, both for the month and annual. Goods producing and Manufacturing have been slowing slightly, but a massive number of positions remain unfilled. Massive in this case is 400,000+. Many of these manufacturing environments were growing due to expectations of pre tariff movement of goods and services. Such as Large Truck and R.R. container manufactures, which have now cut back sharply. Tranportation and Warehousing follows along that same line of thought. Expectations going forward are a slight rebound. To some extent, mining is in that mix. I labeled wholesale and retail trade as whatever color that is, as it would be expected these numbers would fall after the holidays. Construction is doing quite well and most of the larger companies I had dealt with in the past are struggling to keep up and even to find travelers. They're pushing some hefty bonuses. The overall employment number seems a bit tepid, but given the calendar, so what. BTW, the 145,000 is midpoint of the BLS range. That range is from 37,600~252,400. The BLS has never pretended that their empoyment release was 100% accurate, but only a rough estimate that improves as time goes by... hence revisions and sometimes big, although the past revisions with this report were downward. As to wage growth, the year ending 2018, saw 1.2% real wage growth (nominal growth minus inflation) and so far in 2019, as been at 1.1% real growth. If you think the sky is falling over these employment numbers... get an umbrella, it's probably just rain. In fact keep the umbrella with you, even when you think the sun is shining... as you are likely a bit too sensitive. The consumer's decide when and if there is a recession and can change their confidence on a dime. And it does not take all of them to panic, but a mere 5%~10% to go over the edge or possibly even less.