Energy Demand And Supply

Discussion in 'Energy & Fuel' started by Harry Havens, Jun 28, 2017.

  1. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Very Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    603
    Likes Received:
    581
    The weekly “This Week In Crude Oil Report” was just released. There should be an article tomorrow, dealing with the specifics of Harvey.
    upload_2017-9-7_15-22-25.png
    The chart does not give a true picture of Harvey as some information on my chart is averaged over 4 weeks.

    Crude Oil... Production was slowed by 5.6M barrels, largely due to platform shutdowns, shipping stoppages, etc. Crude Oil imports slowed a whopping 6.3M barrels, due to shipping, etc. Crude Exports stalled by about 5.4M barrels as well, so the net was -6.5M barrels, yet the inventory increased roughly 5M barrels. Deduct about 280K barrels that were released from the SPR and the net inventory was 4.73M barrels. Not surprising if refineries can't operate.

    Refineries nationally operated at just 79.7% last week, with the Gulf region at 63.4%. The previous week had the nation's refiners at 96.6% and the gulf region at 96%. The 79.7% national is the lowest since Hurricane Rita in 2005.

    Gasoline... Inventories fell about 3.2M barrels. Gasoline exports declined by 2M barrels. Gasoline imports fell by nearly the same amount. Gasoline supply is ahead of year ago levels of consumption, just not in the right places. Remember the Colonial pipeline was shut down for a few days and it supplied the east coast. The east coast supplies were a bit tight ahead of that and are now about right for mid winter consumption, especially in the mid and lower Atlantic.

    The overall numbers indicate we have plenty of crude and gasoline/diesel, but burrowing down suggests that are potential shortages in some areas. It would be akin to having a water main in front of your house broken and being told the water towers are full. What good is that information to you?
     
    #46
  2. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Very Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    603
    Likes Received:
    581
    It's been a long time since I posted any of these updates to this website.

    What was once a glut in crude is rapidly dissipating as evidenced by the figures in Yellow at top of accompanying chart. While still at a decent 26.4 days of supply (Orange), the trend is obviously decreasing.

    The Gold at the bottom indicates current estimated global supply. What is not listed, is that demand has now reached that level, so any increase in demand will erode the current surplus.

    Global demand is expected to increase to 99.3 million barrels per day by end of this year. The supply did drop due to OPEC cuts, however, much of this was simply the Venezuelan oil industry nearing collapse. Also, Mexico's older fields have lost their punch and new fields are in short supply.

    While the U.S oil production (Blue) has increased nearly 1.3 million bbls per day, the old nemesis is back... how to get it from the fields to the refineries. After all the changes in pipeline routing, it falls back on the old reliable railroad to haul the crude. Pipelines, depending on distance, cost about $1 per barrel, versus $5~$15 for railroad. Warren Buffett must have mixed emotions, as he does own Burlington Northern Santa Fe, but may be kicking himself over selling Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific. Yet he still owns one of the largest tank car makers in the U.S. in Union Tank Car.
    Just think Keystone and now you know why it didn't happen.

    It should also be noted, that refiners have a preference of various blends of crude inputs to optimize refinery throughput. All Light Tight Oil is a money loser. Blending with much heavier crudes can achieve optimum conditions. Hence the "oddity" of exports being up and imports also being up (Red).

    Musk needs to hurry up with those Teslas, as they will be in dire need rather soon. Ford might also take a hit with their announced intentions. It will be interesting to watch how all this impacts the overall economy, imo.

    All data is derived from the Energy Information Administration website and the International Energy Agency website. Information is reused with their permission. (Unlike some, I have noted, that have opted to use copyrighted material without apparent permission or attribution).
    upload_2018-5-29_17-30-5.png
     
    #47
  3. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Very Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    603
    Likes Received:
    581
  4. Frank Sanoica

    Frank Sanoica Veteran Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2016
    Messages:
    6,085
    Likes Received:
    5,763
    @Harry Havens "Why nuclear power will never supply the world's energy needs"
    I missed this 10 months ago, and found it now to be well-written, and conceived. The final conclusion seemed in agreement with my contention that solar power generation, however it is achieved, whether photoelectric conversion directly, or heated medium, will become a viable contender in electric power production.

    Already is. Frank
     
    #49
    Harry Havens likes this.
  5. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Very Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    603
    Likes Received:
    581
    The latest This Week in Petroleum is out and here is my busy chart...
    upload_2018-7-25_20-10-3.png
    More Data Sources:
    U.S. Imports & Exports
    Stocks of Total Crude and Petroleum, Including SPR
    Global Supply
    Refiner Operable Capacity

    With the crude supply at 23.5 days, the glut is all but officially over. Historically this time of year ranges 21.7~22.1 days. Gasoline stocks are up a bit, so some good news.

    On the refinery front, it is time to start thinking hurricanes. The southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are ripe for hurricanes, but lacking a trigger. Sand and dust off the Sahara had tamped down the temps in the traditional breeding ground for Atlantic Hurricanes. The weatherboards claim this is now ending and the breeding ground is now starting to heat up.

    For anyone interested in detailed global energy consumption, BP has released a report online that contains some seriously interesting information.
    BP Statistical Review of World Energy June, 2018
     
    #50

Share This Page