The Final Q1 GDP was released this morning. The headline is 1.4% which is annualized. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/29/final-reading-on-q1-gross-domestic-product.html Actually the Final Q1 will be up for revision again at end of July, as are all previous "finals". The BEA publishes the data here... https://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=1&isuri=1 Note: To get both Nominal and Real GDP, click on section 1 Domestic Product and Income. 1.1.6. is "real" GDP, which is normally used to quantity the GDP. It is basically nominal minus inflation. 1.1.5. is "nominal" GDP. 1.1.1. is the percent change annualized in "real" GDP. We are currently in 2Q which ends this week and will be 1st report last of July. The consensus is 3.0% annualized for 2Q.
It is generally understood that our country has a wide range regarding cost of living. Generally the differences fall into shelter, taxes and services provided. Here is a nice map from the FED, https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/07/regional-price-parities/
Trade report released this morning. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html The trade deficit is still a near 3.0% drag on GDP. We long ago traded in the middle class for lower inflation.
Following up on a previous state by state cost of living, is an area map and a cost of living adjusted map. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/07/cost-of-living-and-per-capita-incomes-in-u-s-cities/ Clicking on the maps will open up for examination of each area.
If referring to the maps, they are more for reference when discussing cost of living variances. Here is a chart from the Census Bureau called supplemental poverty measure. Generally, when the Bureau releases their “official” poverty measures, they are based on the contiguous 48 states as having the same costs of living and then Hawaii and Alaska. However, the Bureau also has one based on cost of living https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p60-258.pdf In the “official” releases, New Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, etc. have the highest poverty rates in the country. When factoring in cost of living, the order changes. District of Columbia, California, Florida, New York, etc. Some might find that interesting. If you are referring to the GDP, etc. I just find that interesting and considering the potential impact of Federal Reserve decisions on economic growth... it provides a platform to whine and gripe debate about economic matters.
However we measure the economy someone is going to complain, be unhappy, feel left out. I guess it depends on who is calling the shots. I was trying to get he gist of things, what you were saying.
I can see California is expensive...even central. I agree! I think each state has its pros and cons. I know that real estate tax is lower in CA than it is in Illinois by far. My daughter pays almost less tax on her almost $2,000,000 home than my son does on his $500,000 one. And $500,000 doesn't get you much in California at all but it does in some other states.
I tell you what makes all places expensive...when your spouse has not had a raise of any kind for 7 years ! Because they are supposedly topped out.
GDP, DEBT, Congress And The FED. The BEA released its Advance Q2 GDP, as well as its annual revisions. No real great surprises regarding Q2, as it fell within expectations. However the annual revisions saw a downward revision in 6 or the previous 7 quarters. Range of -0.7% to -0.2%. The nominal growth is not keeping up with growth in marketable debt. The likelihood of 77.4% Debt/GDP is very real, compared to 75.68% Debt/GDP from end of last fiscal year. Marketable debt is currently growing at a 4.95% annual clip and nominal GDP grew 3.72% the past 12 months. With deficits expected to rise, the debt will continue to outpace the GDP, given current FED targets of 2% real growth and 2% inflation, or 4% nominal GDP growth target. The economy has finally achieved the 2% real growth, but is still lagging below the inflation target. It appears to me that Congress and the FED are not working towards the same goal. The FED is very worried about inflation accelerating beyond its stated 2% target and appears willing to increase rates, as well as unwinding of QE. The Congress seems hamstrung to either reduce spending or increase taxes (or both) to slow down the rate of growth in the debt. At a minimum additional infrastructure spending tied directly to tax increases is about the only tool left in the fiscal basket, unless the FED were to suddenly reverse direction and accept a higher inflation target (4%) on the monetary side. I have a better chance of winning the lottery, imo. I am not sure how this could possibly end well.
Something to chew on in banking. The unofficial problem bank list, from CalculatedRiskBlog.com. The unofficial list was nearly 1,000 at the height of the recession and fell by 3 last month to 134. The total assets of the 134 banks is $32.8B.
Fewer Immigrants Mean More Jobs? Not So, Economists Say The article would have you believe that farmer's just started buying machinery to replace Mexican workers, which is mostly true... but was done with labor costs in mind. Cheap Mexican labor provided a smaller picking cost per unit than mechanical. Raising wages to attract American workforce would have exceeded the picking cost per unit of mechanical. That is exactly what has taken place across the width and breadth of American industry. Robots were not introduced into the auto industry due to lack of labor, but rather the high cost of that labor per unit. Proponents of raising minimum wages need to understand those increased costs in a cost competitive world. Increasing wage costs of jobs that can exceed costs of automation, guarantees those jobs will become automated. The notion of passing those added labor costs along to the customer in a competitive world is nonsense. Americans have shown resistance to higher costs by purchasing cheaper made foreign goods. In jobs that cannot be automated, wage hikes would be beneficial and would be passed on to customers. Is it too much to ask for consistency amongst economists when evaluating jobs and wages?
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate) The release of the 2nd estimate was yesterday, but this is for the April~June period, so it is kind of old news in a way. Considering nearly 70% of GDP is brought about by consumers, their confidence in the economy is very important. 3rd quarter performance (our current quarter) is now up for possible headwinds, even though the consensus currently stands at 2.7%. For every optimistic outlook, there are numerous obstacles that loom. Consumers with confidence can help overcome these obstacles, but that same consumer will be bombarded with Harvey related information for months to come, imo. No doubt, there will be suffering for a long time, but that suffering will be amplified due to a liberal media bias, Trump presidency, Red State Texas, FEMA and a potential cutoff of national flood insurance, climate change and dirty oil, etc. If you think none of this will happen, then you haven't been reading, as it has already taken place and will gain traction, imo.
Bard Setser's "A Few Words on the Dollar". Nearly every economy on the planet has benefited with a strong dollar, except the U.S. Certainly a weaker dollar would cause inflation's ugly head to rise, but a return to historical inflation norms of 4.0% (1950~2000), is necessary if the U.S. is to survive its uncontrolled fiscal policy at a time when the monetary policy chiefs are advocating tightening.
The Census Bureau has published the latest Supplemental Poverty Measure through 2016. It differs from the popularly published Standard Poverty Measure, as it is adjusted for cost of living in each state. As such the povery measure rises from the standard model of 13.7% to 14.7% in the Supplemental. The PDF file. The result in the rankings... There moves afoot to raise the minimum wage in several states and should be lauded for their efforts. However, raising wages would also raise the cost of living. Considering the rigidity of national programs for the poverty stricken, simply raising wages could be detrimental to those already in poverty on the the standard model.